Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Testing the November 2008 lows

When I saw that the Asian markets were down yesterday I was pretty sure we would end up with a down day today--didn't do anything about it before market opening of course.  

The market is down significantly today, inspite of agreement on on stimulus and good news from Wal-Mart.   The overall trend from the last couple weeks looks negative, and I'm sure some people are looking for another drop-off.   The VIX jumped up to 50, 7 points this morning.  

For me it is was gut check time.  Do I stay on the sidelines, in fear mode basically, minimizing the damage of another drop-off, or do I continue on my assumption that the market is going sideways.   On the theory that I would be no worse off than I was before I did another buy-write with  300 shares of Spy  and 79 Feb calls at an 77.37 debit.  I manually executed the order with a market order on SPY and a generous limit order on the calls.   Both filled immediately--nice to not have that be a hassle. 

I looked at the premiums on my existing SZCBC options, with only 4 days to go I thought their premiums might be low enough to suggest closing them out and really bet on a rebound with SPY, but  their premiums are still quite high and I'm sure their implied volitility has upticked (53.45).    

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