I'm not a gold bug. Unlike oil, which people use whether they want to or not, gold is generally a optional purchase. Certainly there are some industrial uses for gold, but at over $1000 an ounce people are pretty motivated to use as little as possible, or develop alternate solutions. So I'm not that impressed with the long term prospect of a big pile of metal locked somewhere in a fortress that is expensive to hold, doesn't generate dividends, and doesn't create value.
I think the current rise is a speculative bubble--but knowing when it will burst is always a challenge. I'm very willing to give up any up-side on gold, in order to make money on the downside. I sold GLD short at 114.44 and bought 108 Dec calls at 7.08 for a net credit of 107.36 per share. If gold continues its upward trend I can only loose .64 maximum per share, but if things turn-around the trade will turn profitable well before the 108 level is reached. In retrospect I probably would have been better just buying 109 Dec puts, but for some reason I have always felt more comfortable with calls.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
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