Saturday, December 05, 2009

The news wasn't that good...

At opening yesterday, SPY was up almost 2 points from Thursday's close.  The overnight news was that unemployment increased less than expected.  While good news, this didn't seem to me the stuff of an exuberant breakthrough from the current trading range around 111.25.  The VIX was still dropping in early action, so I waited until it has bottomed and bumped back up to 20.70 before I bought SDS (double short S&P) at 35.05.  I sold about an hour later at 35.45.

I was too quick to sell--another 30 minutes would have given me 36.30, triple the profit, but this is classic retrospective thinking.  I had more than achieved my target profit from the position.  However, I should have thought about putting a trailing stop or similar in place because the market still was in a pretty fearful mode.

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