February end game -- up, down, or flat?

  Some day to day action and tracking.  Less than two weeks left on the Feb options

• 11-Feb
  Traders looking at previous lows-- appears to be a foundation there around 80, ongoing stream of profit drops / guidance revisions is nibbling away at the overall PE ratio. Although I doubt the market will be strongly up tomorrow, I could see it drifting up and reducing the available premium. 

          Buy-Write debit 79.81  300 shares   81 Feb calls

         For a buy-write the debit amount is always the break-even point, the max credit is the strike price.    For short term gains I have been using a 60% of available premium rule of thumb-- in this case the premium is 1.19, so 60% would be .71,   target credit 79.81+0.71 = 80.52

• 12-Feb
  
    Market is strongly down at opening, Asia markets were down the night before.  On the positive side congress seems to be quickly working through the differences between the house and senate stimulus bill, plus retail sales ended up being better than expected.  Nothing suggests to me that the bottom is going to fall out of the market,  support around 80 seems reasonable.  I'm betting that the market is going sideways, so this looks like a good time to double up. 

300 at 82.0

    SZCBC at 2.4 (late trade due to Schwab software problems)

     Effective debit point is 79.6

     Short term gain point, 60% of 1.4 = .84,   target credit of 80.44