20 April 2009
I generated an 11 year graph of Spy this morning:
I'm not a big chartist--I don't believe that patterns from the past can reliably predict the future (see Fooled by Randomness by Taleb), but a couple things are striking:
- The recovery time from the 2000 bear market was significant--it was roughly a year after things hit bottom before the next bull market really got going.
- The speed at which the current bear market dropped was breathtaking. No wonder people were freaked out.
- It is really optomistic to think that the next bull market is starting now. Look for some sideways action for a few months at least. A "V" shaped recovery after a drop like this certainly exceeds my generally optimistic outlook.
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