Sunday, April 05, 2009

VXX -- The New Clown in Town?

Apparently the new VXX ETF is designed to have the same annualized percentage standard deviation (not sure what this means) as the VIX (see prospectus/ info sheets).   Since the SD is given in points, not percentages this could be really confusing.   It is actually possible that the VXX quants are shooting for a dollar, not percentage correlation with the VIX.  If this is the case then 100 shares of VXX would be the equivalent underlying for a VIX option.  

 Probably will be inherently less volatile than the VIX on big days.  May be more of the fear and greed gauge -- it might have the tendency to go down more than the VIX on big positive S&P moves.  

Interesting scenarios are possible.   VIX options are basically worthless for short-term volatility trading because their prices poorly track the short term moves in the VIX (their European exercise attribute makes this possible).   The VXX looks like it will move as quickly as the VIX, but not as strongly--at least on a percentage basis.   So you can simply go long on volatility, or do a pseudo buy-write with VIX calls.  Since the VIX ITM options have outrageous volatilities and don't track upside moves well this is doubly interesting.    

 Since VXX doesn't count as an underlying for VIX calls I would have to do short spreads to make the options police happy (no naked calls for you!) -- which limits me to my taxable account and makes debit / credit orders not possible. 

 On the negative side, VXX will have a naturally declining characteristic "term structure decay" (whatever that is), has a high expense structure (.89%), and are not guaranteed at all to faithfully follow the VIX.   No one seems to think this is a good buy and hold purchase. 

 On the other hand, if they want to stay in business they better be pretty good at mimicking the VIX.  

 

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