Sunday, July 19, 2009

On to August 09 Options -- except for VIX

Thanks to the nice little rally last week almost all of my options were assigned. The only exceptions were a position in USO that I don't want to close out yet, so I rolled those to August 34s and I closed out a SPY position with 91 calls for a 90.92 credit--8 cents seemed like a reasonable price to pay for not having to worry about the market last Friday. In these bullish situations it is tempting to lament the loss of upside potential due to the short calls in the covered call positions, but I try to remember those flat periods where owning the equity doesn't net you anything.

Overall I see more downside risk than upside for next week because of the big run-up last week, but if I could consistently pick market direction I wouldn't need my day job! I probably won't write many August calls next week because August 22nd (the next expiration date) is a long ways away. Some things that are interesting:
  • USO (Oil ETF) is relatively low, I don't see the price of oil dropping much
  • VIX options expire on Wednesday. There was an interesting amount of premium on the ITM calls last week as the VIX swooned. I would hedge with VXX, even though it is behaving strangely (its "historic" relationship with the nearest S&P volatility future has been running at .39 to .395, away from its normal .41)
  • Fidelity allows trading on weekly SPX options it appears. I would have to do a bear spread with the long side way out of the money--and long SPY, the effective underlying
  • Colgate and Proctor & Gamble are going ex-dividend this week. The options probably have too much time value to be an effective hedge--might be interesting to hedge by going short on the the sector for a day.

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