Overall I see more downside risk than upside for next week because of the big run-up last week, but if I could consistently pick market direction I wouldn't need my day job! I probably won't write many August calls next week because August 22nd (the next expiration date) is a long ways away. Some things that are interesting:
- USO (Oil ETF) is relatively low, I don't see the price of oil dropping much
- VIX options expire on Wednesday. There was an interesting amount of premium on the ITM calls last week as the VIX swooned. I would hedge with VXX, even though it is behaving strangely (its "historic" relationship with the nearest S&P volatility future has been running at .39 to .395, away from its normal .41)
- Fidelity allows trading on weekly SPX options it appears. I would have to do a bear spread with the long side way out of the money--and long SPY, the effective underlying
- Colgate and Proctor & Gamble are going ex-dividend this week. The options probably have too much time value to be an effective hedge--might be interesting to hedge by going short on the the sector for a day.
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