Monday, July 20, 2009

Will Oil mix with Fear?

Today did a buy-write of USO (Crude Oil ETF) and $35 Aug options UBOHI net debit 33.04 USO at 34.63 and UBOHI at 1.59

Also did a Pseudo buy-write of VXX (VIX volatility ETN) with $25 July VIX options (expire on Wednesday) net debit of approximately 24.42. VXX at 65.75 , July VIX futures at 25.2, VIXGE at 0.78. I assumed 40 shares of VXX will hedge one VIX option (based on its historic ratio). To keep the brokers happy I created the VIX option position as a vertical bear spread with the long calls at $32.5 (.03 each).

There is very little downside protection here if the VIX continue to drop as it did last week, but I am betting that the market will at least pause a couple of days to digest last week's surge. Assuming the VIX July future as the underlying I compute an IV for the option to be 77 -- which is consistent with what it was doing last week. I am looking for a volatility collapse today or tomorrow--I would rather not depend on the VIX options expiration process, which looks pretty flaky to me (prone to manipulation). I also might roll the spread to August, where the Aug 25 option is showing a 16%! premium relative to the underlying.

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